South America Calling

Argentina has seen a complete flip in the weather pattern from dry and hot in the beginning of February to wet and cooler at the end of February. A recent publication from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange highlighted rainfall during the second half of February has led to soybean conditions going from disastrous to acceptable. Rainfall, which has been much more widespread in the past few weeks, has led to projected yields for soybeans stabilizing while damage from heat and dryness is being reduced for crops across the main growing areas of Argentina.

In early February, the United States Department of Agriculture's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed a drop in production for Argentina's coarse grain supply. January's estimates were around 60.29 million metric tons (mmt) and February's estimates dropped by 0.9 mmt to 59.39 mmt. The drop was attributed to the dry and hot weather they were experiencing in January into early February.

Now that Argentina's been receiving more rainfall over the past few weeks, estimates of their soybean losses are improving. For their second-season soybeans, they were originally expecting a loss of 40% to 50%; now they are estimating losses closer to 20% to 30%, according to the exchange's report released on Feb. 20. After Feb. 20, rain showers remained frequent across central Argentina. In another report released on Feb. 27, the percentage of second-season soybeans that were rated average-to-poor was estimated to decrease by 20 points.

While the recent rainfalls have helped stabilize or improve soybeans, they are slowing down early corn harvest. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's report released on Feb. 27 noted that early corn harvest is underway with about 10% of the corn crop harvested. Much of this early harvest is due to the drought conditions and hot temperatures that took a toll on the maturing corn in December and January.

As early corn harvest continues and soybean harvest gets going later in March, the rainfall could cause delays. Precipitation for the first week of March is still forecast to be above average across the main growing areas of Argentina. Across Buenos Aires, precipitation from March 1-4 is estimated to be 20-40 millimeters (0.8-1.6 inches) above average. Cordoba and Santa Fe will also see above-average precipitation for the same period. The early corn harvest is going to have a slow start as they dodge almost daily chances for rain showers.

Disturbances are expected to continue crossing through southern Argentina for the first week of March, but there are other factors contributing to the above-average precipitation. As these systems work through southern Argentina, their cold fronts will extend farther north into central Argentina. These fronts won't be able to continue drifting north into northern Argentina because an upper-air ridge is leading to the fronts stalling out. When the fronts stall out, this can lead to slow moving rain showers developing along the front that dump locally heavy rainfall.

The American GFS model is depicting a large swath of rain exceeding 100 millimeters (4 inches) from southern Cordoba and northern La Pampa into eastern Buenos Aires from Feb. 28-March 6. This happens to be across the same area that has already received over 100 millimeters (4 inches) of rain from Feb. 11-Feb. 26. Some fields will likely be saturated by the end of next week, but these showers will need to become less frequent later in March as corn and soybean harvest start ramping up.

If you would like to read some of the recent crop and weather reports from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, they can be found here: https://www.bcr.com.ar/….

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, visit https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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