South America Calling

Mato Grosso, by far Brazil's largest production state for both corn and soybeans, had a rough start to its 2024-25 campaign. Early dryness pushed back the planting of soybeans, and this caused the early harvest to be delayed as well, by about two weeks. But more favorable weather during the last couple of weeks has allowed producers to play catchup and the state is within just a few ticks of the average pace for this time of year.

According to data published by the Mato Grosso Institute for Agricultural Economics (IMEA), as of Feb. 21, soybean harvest pace has reached 66% complete, on par with the average pace over the last five years, but behind last year's progress of 76%. For the safrinha (second-season) corn crop, planting progress has jumped to 67% complete, just behind the five-year average of 70%, but lagging last year's progress of 80%.

The state hopes to make it to 80% complete, as of this week, in the year to capitalize on the remaining wet season rainfall. Those rains dry up in early May, about May 5 on average, and farmers hope to get the corn through pollination before that happens, relying on the built-in subsoil moisture to fill out the kernels. At 80% completed, the safrinha crop usually produces a fair yield. The more the crop is planted late, the more exposed it will be to the dry season, and the lower the overall yield potential.

And even at near the normal pace, it may be too late. La Nina, the cold side of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the current state in the tropical Pacific Ocean, has a tendency to shut down those wet season rains early, by a week or two on average. If that holds this year, and the wet season rainfall does indeed shut down in mid-late April, there could be a substantial portion of the crop that will not make it through pollination without significant stress.

Without the rains, temperatures soar sometimes above 40 degrees Celsius (more than 104 degrees Fahrenheit). Subsoil moisture runs out quickly and kernels are not filled properly.

The DTN forecast is indeed calling for lower precipitation in April and May in this state and the entire central Brazil region. But even leading up to the end of the wet season, rainfall is forecast to be lower than normal in the region.

Even if these wet season rains shut down on time, the amount of subsoil moisture available may be too little. So, while the planting progress for safrinha corn caught up to a normal pace, there is still a long way to go for the crop and it is not without dangerous weather potential.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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