South America Calling

With safrinha (second crop) corn planting progress now caught up or in some cases ahead of the normal pace, Brazil's weather situation goes back to one that would prefer to see more rainfall. But the weather situation is only favorable for some areas, while others are getting quite dry.

During the last two weeks, drier conditions have been very common across southern and eastern Brazil. Combined with temperatures regularly in the 30s Celsius (upper 80s to upper 90s Fahrenheit) and sunny skies, soils have been drying out. Latest satellite data from NASA and NOAA show much of the croplands in these regions with below-normal soil moisture. From Rio Grande do Sul through Piaui, soil moisture is not at a point where it needs to be.

The far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul produces more full-season corn and soybeans, which are either filling or being harvested. Rainfall there is not as much of a consequence for crop production. But in the safrinha corn areas from Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul up through Minas Gerais and Goias, and to a smaller extent Piaui, the moisture situation is more concerning. These areas are dependent upon good rainfall through at least mid-April, and ideally into early May, to get corn through pollination before wet season rains make their annual retreat.

Dry weather during the wet season can lead to disaster for a corn crop so dependent on good weather. Roughly 40% of the safrinha corn production is in this region. The safrinha season accounts for 75% of Brazil's total corn production, making this weather situation very important to watch closely.

Southern areas got some relief this week as a front moved up from Argentina and settled in. Showers have been scattered, but not overly heavy so far. Satellite estimates are mostly less than 25 millimeters (about 1 inch) for the states of Parana, Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul, though some areas have picked up more than 50 mm (2 inches). Mato Grosso do Sul has been the overall winner there with near-normal rainfall for the week.

That front is forecast to waffle around this general area through much of next week, sometimes drifting a little farther north toward southern Goias and Minas Gerais. Rainfall forecasts of 25-50 mm are forecast near this front and currently favor Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo with the highest amounts.

However, for the rest of east-central and northeast Brazil, the rainfall forecast is bleak. Occasional showers will occur, but amounts look to be spotty, leaving some areas very dry. The San Marcos Valley, between western Minas Gerais and eastern Goias, is in a particularly dry spot, where rainfall is generally not forecast outside of the far south, leading to generally poor growing conditions for safrinha corn.

But the biggest production state, Mato Grosso, has much better conditions. Producing approximately 50% of the safrinha corn crop for Brazil, this is the most important state. Weather conditions here have been overall favorable. Wet season showers have been falling regularly. And while amounts certainly could be better, satellite estimates soil moisture at near normal in this state. With showers continuing to fall in the state for the foreseeable future, this area is looking good for the newly planted corn.

Some areas are doing well, like Mato Grosso, while other dry areas are improving across the south, but getting poor across the east and northeast. The forecast will be important for the next six weeks before the dry season sets in, and the corn is left to fill with what moisture remains.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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