Sort & Cull

The long Fourth of July weekend was just what the cattle complex needed as traders ran into Monday's market fully charged and ready to support both the live and feeder cattle contracts following the break.

By Monday's close, the spot August contract had moved $1.85 higher to close at $215.90, which is the highest price point that the contract has traded at in the last 12 trading days, yet another positive move further away from the market's 40-day moving average. Given the slightly unknown nature of what this week's fed cash cattle market is going to amount to, early support from traders was quite substantial.

From a fundamental standpoint, it's a coin toss on how this week will pan out. It's surprising that boxed beef prices remained this strong for so long; but from a seasonal perspective, everyone knows boxed beef prices soften in the third quarter, usually after the big retail stock up for the Fourth of July. Not to mention, packers sit in an advantageous position as they have cattle built up around them. But if boxed beef demand somehow remains strong -- which would be opposite of the market's typical seasonal norm -- then there's a chance they may stay somewhat active in the cash market to not only ensure they won't be short bought in the coming weeks, but to also keep enough retail supply around to be able to sell.

Even greater momentum was seen in the feeder cattle complex as most of its contracts closed $3 to $4 higher by Monday's end. To be specific, by Monday's close the spot August contract had closed $4.22 higher -- the biggest gain for any of the feeder cattle contracts for the day -- and successfully scored a new contract high as well. This was especially invigorating for the feeder cattle complex as this week Superior Livestock Auction is hosting its Week in the Rockies video auction where more than 300,000 head of cattle are cataloged to sell. Once again, after this large market test, cattlemen will have a better idea of what to expect their fall delivery feeder cattle to bring this year.

The market is off to an aggressive start for the week and hopefully will continue to trade in this higher manner as cow-calf producers are diligently marketing their 2025 calves.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

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