November 2024 canola settled $5.60/metric ton lower while holding barely above the previous week's low during four days of trade. So far this week, the new-crop contract is down $6/mt, while poised for sixth weekly loss.
Today's close of $668.20/mt is only $1/mt higher than the weekly close for the week of June 19, while poised for the weakest weekly close seen in more than six months.
As seen on the attached chart, this week's close is also poised to land below the 61.8% retracement of the move from the contract's June 1 low of $607.40/mt to the Aug. 28 high of $780/mt. This could trigger further selling and downside for this market. Potential support from lows on the weekly chart is seen at $665.90/mt, then again at $655.30/mt.
The first study shows the Nov/Jan spread closing at minus $1.30/mt, a relatively strong or narrow spread for this day. Last year, this spread was noted at a $1.90 inverse (November trading over the January contract), while during the past five years, this spread averaged minus $2.98/mt on this date.
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