Canada Markets

The week 19 Grain Monitoring Program's Weekly Performance Update reports western terminal grain inventories, including licensed terminals in Vancouver, Prince Rupert, Thunder Bay and to a small extent Churchill, to have climbed in the past week. A graphical representation of this data shows stocks above the same week in 2022-23 and also above the three-year average for this week.

The reported data shows total grain stocks at 1.3762 million metric tons (mmt), up 5% from the previous year and 8% higher than the three-year average. This is compared to the report's reported total capacity of 2.7525 mmt, while also accounting for 71% of the estimated working capacity for these terminals, estimated at 1.9268 mmt.

Railways have been performing well. The AG Transport Coalition reports that Canada's major railways have spotted from 90% to 99% of the hopper cars ordered by major shippers during the week wanted over the past seven weeks, while averaging 95% over the seven weeks.

The attached chart shows how the week 19 stocks of major crops in terminal position compares to the same week in 2022-23 and also the three-year average. This may provide insight into the focus grain companies are placing on movement of individual crops along with the export prospects for these crops.

As seen on the attached chart, week 19 stocks of wheat, oats and soybeans are higher than the same week in 2022-23 and also the three-year average. Soybean inventory is 137.4% higher than one year ago, by far the largest year-over-year change, although the volume instore is relatively small at 62,900 metric tons (mt), which is sharply higher than the 26,500 mt reported one year ago. Wheat stocks are running well above last year and the three-year average at 687,300 mt, accounting for 50% of all grain stocks and clearly the focus of shippers.

The most negative data is seen for durum and barley, crops that face a combination of lower supplies and poor demand prospects. Stocks of both are below both year-ago levels and their respective three-year average.

Data for canola is perhaps neutral. Western terminal stocks of 292,300 mt in week 19 is 2.8% higher than one year ago while 8.6% lower than the three-year average. This comes amid a wide range of views of Canada's export potential, with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) leaving its forecast unchanged this month at 7.7 mmt, while some are pointing to a potential in the 5 mmt to 6 mmt range.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

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