Canada Markets

The attached chart shows the change in estimated crop year supplies from 2022-23 to 2023-24 when adjusted for the Statistics Canada production estimates released this week.

Of the crops selected, while no surprise, we see crop year supplies for all crops shown where production is concentrated on the prairies. Of the select crops, the only two crops showing a year-over-year increase are soybeans and corn, linked to eastern production.

The largest year-over-year change in crop year supplies is seen for durum and oats. Durum supplies are estimated to fall by 1.881 million metric tons (mmt) or 29.6% year-over-year to 4.479 mmt, the second-lowest volume shown in Statistics Canada's data going back to 1996-97, next to the 3.853 mmt estimated for 2021-22. Supplies of oats at 3.936 mmt are down 1.647 mmt or 29.5%, the second-lowest seen in 11 years.

Crop year supplies for the largest crops, both wheat and canola, will fall only modestly. Supplies of wheat (excluding durum) are estimated to fall by 444,000 metric tons (mt) or 1.4% to 31.258 mmt, or the second lowest in six years. Supplies of canola are estimated to fall by 215,000 mt or 1.1% to 19.934 mmt, for the second-lowest volume estimated in nine years.

Of the two crops where supplies are estimated to grow year-over-year, corn supplies are currently forecast to increase by 72,000 mt or .4% to 19.503 mmt, the second largest on record, while soybean stocks are forecast to increase by 517,000 mt or 7.1% to 7.808 mmt, or the largest supplies in five years.

**

It's time to register for DTN's Virtual Ag Summit on Dec. 5 and 6, a virtual event that offers discussions of farmland values, tax advice, the latest technological advances and the challenges of having a family business. On Dec. 6, DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick will give an early glimpse of what to expect from the weather in 2024 and DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman will give his best assessment of where he thinks corn and soybean prices are headed in the year ahead.

Register for this free event at www.dtn.link/DTNAgSummit23. Can't make it those two days? A recorded link will be provided, but you need to register.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @CliffJamieson.

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.