Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reports that Canada's imports of all goods fell 2.8% in October while exports rose by a modest 0.1%. As a result, the country's trade balance with the world saw the surplus increase from $1.1 billion in September to $3 billion in October, increasing for a second month and the largest surplus achieved since June 2022 or 16 months.

Exports in the broad Farm, fishing and intermediate food products fell slightly from September to $5.0027 billion in October, while down 13% from one year ago.

The following is a look at select trade data for crops and crop products, with a focus on crops where activity is more fully explained in monthly data as compared to the Canadian Grain Commission's weekly statistics.

Statistics reported 198,464 metric tons (mt) of lentils exported in October, down only slightly from the previous month. Measured in dollar value of sales, 40.6% was shipped to India, down only slightly from the previous month. Cumulative exports over three months total 442,814 mt, down 20.2% from one year ago and 23.4% from the five-year average for this period. To-date, exports have reached 31.6% of the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) export demand target, ahead of the pace needed to reach this forecast, while this week's upward revision in production by Statistics Canada will likely result in an upward revision in Canada's export potential.

Dry pea exports totaled 305,170 mt, down from the previous month. China was the largest destination accounting for 79% of the total volume, which is down from the previous month. Cumulative exports are up 2.4% from a year ago at 844,194 mt while down 17.2% from the five-year average. Cumulative shipments this crop year are well-ahead of the pace needed to reach the current AAFC forecast, while this forecast will also be revised higher due to Statistics Canada's higher production estimate.

Chickpea exports are seen at 19,898 mt, the largest monthly volume shipped in seven months and the largest October volume shipped in six years. The volume was split across a number of buyers, with 23% shipped to Turkey, the largest destination. Cumulative exports total 46,449 mt, down 6.4% from a year ago and 55% higher than the five-year average. The pace of exports is well ahead of the pace forecast by the government although a higher revision in export potential may be possible.

Canary seed exports were seen at 8,620 mt, the largest volume in four months, with 39% of the volume shipped to Mexico, the largest single destination. Cumulative exports total 20,657 mt, down 36.8% from one year ago and 38.5% below the five-year average. Cumulative exports have reached 15.3% of the government's 2023-24 forecast, behind the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Mustard exports in October are reported at 8,211 mt, the largest volume shipped in four months. Of this volume, 65% was shipped to the U.S., the largest monthly volume shipped south in four months. Cumulative exports of 21,215 mt are down 26.5% from a year ago and down 20.5% from the five-year average. Cumulative exports have reached 17% of the current AAFC export demand forecast, while behind the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Canada's soybean exports of 742,873 mt was the largest monthly volume shipped in 10 months and up 28.4% from the same month in 2022. While this volume was spread across a number of countries, China accounts for 43.6% of the month's shipments and the largest single destination. Cumulative shipments during the first two months are shown at 826,480 mt, up 19.7% from the same period in 2022-23 and down 3.5% from the five-year average, while just slightly ahead of the pace forecast by AAFC to achieve the current 4.8 mmt forecast.

Canada's flaxseed exports are seen at 9,085 mt, the lowest volume seen in 13 months. While spread across a number of destinations, 70% of this volume was shipped south to the U.S. while the volume to China has fallen sharply to a negligible volume. Exports over three months total 34,094 mt, up 16.8% from one year ago while down 38.6% from the five-year average. The current AAFC forecast is for exports of 300,000 mt of exports, up 40% from 2022-23 while cumulative exports have achieved only 11.4% of this volume, well-behind the pace needed to reach this volume. This week, Statistics Canada revised its production forecast for flax modestly higher.

Corn exports fell for a fifth month to a modest 36,814 mt, the lowest monthly volume shipped in 12 months. It is interesting to note that despite record U.S. production this year, close to this entire volume was shipped south into the U.S. Current exports total 84,613 mt over two months, down 26.5% from one year ago and 9.8% below the five-year average. To-date, 4.6% of the 1.85 mmt export forecast has been achieved, well-behind the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Canada's corn imports total 248,819 mt in October, up slightly from the previous month. Over the Sept/Oct period, 473,082 mt has been imported, up 45.2% from one year ago while 40.5% higher than the five-year average. AAFC has estimated 2.8 mmt will be imported, revised 200,000 mt lower in their November forecast, while the current pace of movement is slightly ahead of the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Canola oil exported is seen at 283,596 mt, down from the previous month. Cumulative exports of 849,548 mt, up 26.4% from one year ago and 20.4% higher than the three-year average.

Canola meal exports in October totaled 486,731 mt, up from the previous month. Over two months, the volume exported totaled 1.445 mmt, up 16.4% from one year ago and 18.4% higher than the three-year average.

Canada's ethanol imports total 275 million litres in October, the second-largest monthly imports next to the 286 million litres imported in July of this year. Over the first 10 months of 2023, imports total 2.240 billion litres, up 55% from one year ago and 93% higher than the three-year average.

Canada's biodiesel imports reached 58,635 metric tons, up slightly from the previous month. Year to date imports (Jan-Oct) total 700,685 mt, up 19.1% from one year ago and up 33% from the three-year average.

Canada's wheat exports in October (excluding durum) are reported at 2.053 mmt, up slightly from the previous month. The largest shipments based on value are seen to Indonesia and Japan, while shipments to China of 541,429 mt are down 49% from the same period one year ago. Cumulative wheat sales over three months total 5.434 mmt, up 13% from one year ago. As of the CGC's week 13 data, which covers activity through Oct. 29, 5.138 mmt of exports are reported, which points to unlicensed exports of roughly 296,000 mt.

Durum exports are shown at 292,791 mt in October, the largest shipments reported so far this crop year. Cumulative exports of 634,132 mt are down 25% from one year ago.

Canola exports totaled 894,826 mt, up sharply from the previous month. Over three months, exports total 1.566 mt, up by a modest 4% from the same period in 2022-23.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

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