Canada Markets

Saskatchewan Agriculture's estimated crop yields found in the province's crop report as of Sept. 4 show the potential for a larger crop than seen in Statistics Canada's first of two production estimates, based on July model results.

The attached chart shows the change in production when the calculation is based on provincial yield estimates, which are based on the old-fashion approach consisting of walking fields and talking to producers. The calculation is based on Statistics Canada's harvest acre estimates, estimates which could also be tested as the poorest of crops are salvaged for feed.

Of the 10 crops considered, eight would result in higher production based on provincial yield estimates. The largest increases in production as a result of this calculation were seen for barley and spring wheat. Saskatchewan Agriculture has estimated the provincial barley yield at 53 bushels per acre (bpa) as compared to Statistics Canada's 44.4 bpa estimate, an increase that would increase production by 484,768 metric tons (mt) based on Statistics Canada's harvested acre estimates.

The largest increase by far is seen for spring wheat. The provincial yield estimate of 42 bpa for hard red spring wheat and 43 bpa for spring wheat other than HRS is compared against Statistics Canada's 35.1 bpa estimate, which would result in increased output of 1.710 million metric tons (mmt) across the estimated 8.977 million harvested acres.

Two crops in this calculation would result in lower production when calculated with provincial yield estimates. The Saskatchewan government estimated canola yield at 31 bpa compared to Statistics Canada's 32.7 bpa, which would lead to reduced production of 475,697 mt. As well, the provincial estimates show the average durum yield at 23 bpa, compared to the official estimate of 26.5 bpa, which would lead to a lower revision of 463,228 mt based on the official harvested acre estimate.

Statistics Canada is poised to update their estimates next week (Sept. 14) based on their August model data.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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