Canada Markets

Statistics Canada's Sept. 8 release of ending stocks estimates for Canada's principal field crops as of July 31 (excluding soybeans and corn), along with their initial estimate for 2023 production based on July model data along with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's estimate for crop year imports allows for a calculation of crop year supplies for 2023-24. Note that on Sept. 14, Statistics Canada will revise their production estimates based on updated August model data.

Based on current government estimates, 2023-24 crop year supplies will fall year-over-year for all selected crops, ranging from a modest 4.8% drop for canola to 19.2 million metric tons (mmt) to a 33.4% drop for oats to 3.719 mmt (brown bars compared to the blue bars).

Supplies for wheat are estimated to fall by 12.9% to 33.2 mmt, which consists of a 10.1% drop in wheat supplies (excluding durum) to 28.5 mmt and a 26.3% drop in durum supplies to 4.680 mmt, which falls well below the 5.1 mmt of exports achieved through licensed terminals in 2022-23.

While not shown, chickpea supplies are forecast to fall by 37.3% in volume, year-over-year.

As seen on the chart, very similar results are found when the estimated supplies are compared to the five-year average supplies based on Statistics Canada data, which is indicated by the grey bars. Estimated supplies for 2023-24 range from 7.5% lower than the five-year average for wheat (excluding durum) to 33.6% lower for dry peas.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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