Canada Markets

Record Canola Crush Reported for October

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Statistics Canada reported a record 882,301 metric tons of canola crushed in October, a record level and well above the volume needed this month in order to remain on track to reach current AAFC forecasts. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Statistics Canada reported a record October canola crush of 882,301 metric tons, 12.1% higher than the same month in 2018-19 and 7.3% higher than the three-year average for this month. This volume is also 14.5% higher than the volume needed this month to reach Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's most recent Food and Industrial Use forecast of 9.250 million metric tons.

Over the first quarter of the crop year, the domestic crush totals 2.480 mmt, 11.3% higher than the same three-month period in 2018-19 and 15.8% higher than the three-year average. This is 7.2% above the cumulative pace needed to reach the current AAFC target of 2.312 mmt.

A ProphetX chart approximating the moves in the Canadian Canola board Margin Index has shown an uptrend since reaching a June 13 low of $70.13/mt, while the chart shows a Friday close of $98.40/mt, which compares to the actual index reported at $98.15/mt, well above the $51.74/mt reported this time last year while continuing to support an active crush.

Dow Jones headlines on Monday summarizing China's official data for imports in October, with soybean oil imports up 48.9% year-over-year, along with a 73.1% increase in palm oil imports. While data wasn't reported for canola, this bears watching.

At the same time, movement of both grain and products may be affected across Canada due to the CN Rail strike that may result in a bearish factor for the crush industry if timely movement of products is not achieved.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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