Canada Markets

Canola Exports Spike in Week 15

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The green bars represent the weekly licensed exports of canola for 2019-20 and the blue line represents the volume needed each week to reach the current AAFC forecast, both measured against the primary vertical axis. The black line represents the steady pace needed to reach the current forecast, while the red line represents cumulative exports, both measured against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The Canadian Grain Commission's week 15 Grain Statistics Weekly report shows canola exports for the week-ending Nov. 17 totaling 429,000 metric tons. This is more than double the 181,600 mt needed this week to stay on track to reach Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's current 9.2 million metric ton export forecast; it is the largest weekly shipments seen since week 14 of the 2017-18 crop year when 470,200 mt was shipped.

On Nov. 20, Quorum Corporation's Weekly Performance Update reported the week 15 Vancouver vessel lineup at 35 vessels, well above the one-year average of 22 per week. The Prince Rupert lineup was reported at six vessels, also above the one-year average of five per week. Combined, there was a week-over-week increase of seven vessels.

The Canadian Grain Commission's week 15 data shows total week 15 exports through licensed facilities of 1.045 mmt, down slightly from the previous week. Movement of canola in week 15 was not the only crop to show movement out of the ordinary, with 159,500 mt of durum shipped which was the highest weekly volume shipped this crop year. Favourable volumes shipped could spill over into week 16.

Also of interest in the week's statistics is favourable movement from both sides of the country, with 260,300 mt shipped from the West Coast while 122,100 mt was shipped from St. Lawrence terminals. The eastern volume shipped almost doubles the cumulative volume shipped from these terminals to 247,500 mt and could indicate increase volumes destined for Europe.

Despite the late harvest and reduced outlook for exports, producers have delivered 5.973 mmt of canola into the licensed handling system as of week 15, 3.8% higher than the same period in 2018-19. Commercial stocks have fallen in each of the past two weeks but remain comfortable at 1.356 mmt.

Given the CN Rail strike, terminal stocks may soon be the major focus. Week 15 terminal stocks are reported at 393,800 mt, having fallen in each of the past two weeks. At the same time, this volume is third-highest volume reported this crop year, with the peak reached at 452,900 mt in week 13.

Vancouver stocks are reported at 234,000 mt, the second-highest volume reported this crop year, while stocks at the major Western ports (West Coast, Churchill and Thunder Bay) total 351,000 mt, down from the week 13 high of 370,100 mt.

As seen on the attached chart, the red line has moved above the black line, which represents the steady pace needed to reach the current 9.2 mmt export forecast set by AAFC. Cumulative exports at 2.7295 mmt are a modest 76,000 mt ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

At the same time, the USDA continues to forecast Canada's crop year exports at 10 mmt, while one year ago, AAFC was projecting 2018-19 crop year exports at 11.5 mmt prior to the halt in flow to China.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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