Canada Markets

Friday's Statistics Canada report estimated western Canada's all-wheat production and canola production to be less than expected according to pre-report trade estimates conducted by Dow Jones. Some continue to expect the crop to grow in size on paper due to the timing of the Statistics Canada report, which took place at a time when harvest was approximately 25% complete.

Current estimates for the 2014 crop in the Prairie Provinces could still be third largest on record, despite the production challenges faced this growing season. The total estimated production for the major cereals, oilseeds and special crops grown on the prairie provinces as reported by Statistics Canada total 57.3 million metric tonnes, which compares to the 59.6 mmt crop produced in 2008 and the record 68.9 mmt crop taken off in 2013. Current estimates would also suggest 2014 production to be 5.3% above the 10-year average.

Given recent Stats Can estimates, the estimated year-over-year drop in all-wheat production on the prairies is 9.4 mmt, just slightly lower than the 9.7 mmt increase in production seen between 2012 and 2013. The estimated year-over-year drop in canola production is estimated at 3.8 mmt, just below the 4.1 mmt year-over-year increase from 2012 to 2013.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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(ES)

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