Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.28 lower at $68.10. Despite its lower weekly close, the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. The markets inverted forward curve, reflecting bullish fundamentals continues to provide support. However crude oil's weekly and monthly stochastics are above the overbought level of 80%. Major (long-term) resistance on the monthly chart remains at $72.36.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 2.79cts higher at $2.1509. The market moved back into a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend as the spot-month contract posted a new high of $2.1670 last week. While support continues to come from the market's inverted forward curve, reflecting bullish fundamentals, both weekly and monthly stochastics are near or above the overbought level of 80%.

Gasoline: RBOB gasoline futures market closed 3.10cts higher at $2.1269. The market extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend as the spot-month contract posted a new high of $2.1367. Next major (long-term) resistance on the monthly chart is at $2.1882. However, weekly stochastics are already above 90% indicating a sharply overbought market. Beyond the soon to expire May contract, RBOB's forward curve is inverted reflecting a bullish supply and demand situation.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 5.1cts lower at $1.448. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways between support at $1.400 and resistance at $1.510.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 3.2cts higher at $2.771. The market looks to be in a slow building secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Weekly stochastics established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% the previous week, with the spot-month contract posting a new 4-week high of $2.839 this past week. However, this high is also a test of initial resistance at $2.869, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.994 through the low of $2.522.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 10.25cts higher at $0.8075. Cash propane saw its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend strengthen last week, with its high of $0.8275 a test of resistance at $0.8291. This price marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $0.9800 through the low of $0.5850. Next resistance at the 76.4% retracement level is $0.8868.

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