Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Corn and Soybean Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.25, up 3 cents for the week. The NCI.X remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend on its weekly close only chart with initial support at $3.18 1/4. Cash corn is in Wave C (third wave) of a 3-wave move meaning it should take out the Wave A low of $3.17 1/4. This puts the downside target at $3.12, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $2.85 1/4 through the high of $3.38 1/2.

Corn (Old-crop Futures): The July contract closed 2.75cts higher at $3.66 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with initial support at $3.60 1/2 and resistance $3.98 1/4. Given its proximity to support and last Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) that showed noncommercial interest increasing their net-short position to 83,268 contracts (the largest since the week of April 5, 2016), July corn could see a spike rally over the coming weeks.

Corn (New-crop Futures): The December 2017 contract closed 3.000cts higher at $3.85. The contract's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with initial support at $3.81 1/4, then $3.73 1/2. Resistance remains at the previous high of $4.03 3/4. Weekly stochastics are nearing the oversold level of 20%.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.78 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents for the week. Despite the lower close, the NSI.X still remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly close only chart. Initial resistance is at $9.22 3/4, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $11.12 through the low of $8.67 1/4. The 38.2% retracement level is at $9.60 3/4. Weekly stochastics are bullish below the oversold level of 20%.

Soybeans (Old-crop Futures): The July contract closed at $9.55 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents for the week. Despite the lower weekly close the contract remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend based on the bullish reversal seen the week of April 10. Initial resistance is at $9.81 3/4, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $11.13. The 38.2% retracement level is up near $10.07 3/4. Weekly stochastics are bullish below the oversold level of 20%.

Soybeans (New-crop Futures): The November 2017 contract closed at $9.53 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents for the week. Last week saw the contract post a bearish outside week, offsetting the bullish reversal from the week of April 10, signaling the secondary (intermediate-term) has at least turned sideways if not down again. Initial support is at the low of $9.41 1/2 (week of April 10, while weekly stochastics are holding below the oversold level of 20%.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, April 25.

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