Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.00 1/2, up 12 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend continues to strengthen. However, the NCI.X is testing initial resistance at $3.03, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.00 1/2 through the low of $2.73. The 4-week high is just above that at $3.03 3/4. Given the market's bullish momentum it should be able to extend its rally to the 38.2% retracement level of $3.21 3/4.

Corn (Futures): The December contract closed 12.50cts higher at $3.41. December corn remains on the cusp of establishing a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. The contract is testing initial resistance at $3.46 1/2, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.49 through the contract low of $3.14 3/4. The 4-week high is at $3.44 1/4. Weekly stochastics have already established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, an early sign the trend is set to turn up.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.40 3/4, up 25 3/4 cents for the week. The NSI.X looks to have established a 2-week bullish reversal. The previous week saw a close near the weekly low of $9.07 1/2, also a test of secondary (intermediate-term) support at $9.07 1/4. Last week the NSI.X closed at its weekly high of $9.40 3/4. The initial upside target is $9.85 3/4, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend.

Soybeans (Futures): The November contract closed at $9.80 1/4, up 27 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to at least have turned sideways, with support at the 4-week low of $9.72. If the contract establishes a secondary uptrend, initial retracement resistance is also at $10.20. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $11.86 1/4 through the recent low.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN SRW Wheat National Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.48 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents for the week. Though the possibility of a bullish island bottom was erased as the SR.X filled the previous week's bearish price gap, cash SRW wheat continues to indicate action from two weeks ago established a bullish spike reversal. The market still has work to do to move into a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, looking to move sideways-to-up short-term.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRW Wheat National Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.04, up 5 3/4 cents for the week. The HW.X is more bullish than the SR.X, already indicating the establishment of a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. The previous week's spike reversal also created a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%. Initial resistance is at the 4-week high of $3.29 1/2.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat National Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.38, up 2 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to be sideways. Support is at the 4-week low, the previous week's low, of $4.30 with resistance at the 4-week high of $4.75 1/4.

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