Sort & Cull

Last week, the cattle complex traded mixed, attempting to navigate amid challenging tariff turmoil, weaker cash cattle trade and some slight hesitancy in boxed beef prices. Given that packers have been able to secure some inventory during the last month, it makes sense that cash prices were lower. But with warmer spring days starting to appear, why exactly did boxed beef prices trend lower last week?

Throughout last week, choice cuts averaged $336.79 (down $2.05 from the previous week) and select cuts averaged $318.18 (down $1.01 from the previous week); the week's total movement of cuts, grinds, and trim totaled 605 loads.

There are a couple of reasons why boxed beef prices may have traded lower last week. First, Easter isn't a major beef holiday and it's likely consumers chose to spend their money on ham or lamb as opposed to beef. Second, consumers are soberly aware that intensified trade dealings could pressure our domestic economy, which typically pushes consumers to sharpen their pencils and hone their own spending habits. Third, it's also normal to see a slight boxed beef bobble ahead of a full-fledged spring rally in May, which typically sees phenomenal beef demand well through the Memorial Day weekend. And last but not least, it's also important to keep in mind just how high boxed beef prices already are.

Last year at this time, choice cuts traded at $302.62 -- and just last Friday, choice cuts closed at $334.22, a whopping $31.06 more than a year ago. The same price jump has been seen for select cuts; a year ago, select was trading at $283.87, but last Friday select closed at $313.96, which is $30.09 higher than a year ago.

There are a lot of factors currently weighing on the market. And while it can sometimes seem easy to say the market traded the way it did because of "this-or-that" reason, we must remember to keep our lens focused on the broader scope of things during times like this.

And as a side note, remember this is a holiday-shortened week as the market will be closed on Friday for Good Friday ahead of Easter Sunday, and on Thursday the monthly Cattle on Feed report is set to be released.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com

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