Minding Ag's Business

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) explained on Wednesday that one driver for increasing corn and soybean acreage was that the statistics service relied more on Farm Service Agency (FSA) acreage reports.

NASS bumped up both corn and soybean planted acreage by 1.4 million acres each in Wednesday's Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. Among the reasons for higher acreage estimates is that NASS relied more on acreage data from FSA that was also released on Wednesday.

"This year, NASS has made greater use of acreage information reported to USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA), allowing USDA to build on information producers have already provided while focusing the survey on the information only producers can provide -- crop yields and current growing conditions," NASS stated in a news release before the WASDE and Crop Production reports were issued.

The news release also emphasized the importance of farmers participating in NASS surveys.

"Producer participation in the Agricultural Yield Survey makes a difference in the quality of USDA's data," said Deputy Secretary Stephen Alexander Vaden. "This year's August Crop Production report not only reflects data from the Agricultural Yield Survey, but it also builds on our commitment to producers to make better use of information already available, reduce unnecessary reporting, and continue delivering the trusted statistics on which agriculture depends. By combining producer-reported yield information with FSA acreage data and sound statistical methods, USDA is improving the quality, objectivity, and integrity of our agricultural statistics."

USDA leaders are emphasizing a plan to overhaul NASS surveys and data collection. Last week at Farmfest in Minnesota, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said USDA officials would spend August holding roundtables with farmers at events around the country to discuss how to improve NASS data collection and the accuracy of crop reports.

At the same time, NASS injected some confusion about its methodology on social media Wednesday. NASS posted on X early in the day, "For the August Crop Production report, NASS is using multiple sources beyond survey results, including satellite and remote sensing data, administrative data from federal partners, and objective yield measurements to strengthen acreage and yield estimates."

NASS then deleted that post, but stated that the agency used "normal procedures for all forecasts included in today's Crop Production report." NASS added, "In an effort to enhance transparency regarding our procedures at @usda_nass a tweet was posted earlier highlighting the various data sources used in August. This was not intended to suggest we were doing anything different from recent years for today's report."

MARKET SAW POSITIVE SWING

Despite the acreage shifts, corn, soybeans and wheat all saw strong gains on Wednesday. December corn futures were up 20.25 cents a bushel to nearly $4.81 a bushel after the WASDE showed strong demand for corn and cut ending stocks to a projected 1.653 billion bushels.

DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery noted the corn futures increase was the largest daily gain since President Donald Trump's visit to China in mid-May.

November soybeans also rose 14.5 cents to more than $11.83 a bushel. September wheat rose 22.5 cents a bushel to more than $6.52 a bushel as well.

NASS ON CORN ACRES

NASS increased corn acreage by 1.4 million acres to 96.73 million acres (ma). The change marked the third consecutive year NASS has revised corn acreage in the August report.

The report showed farmers in Iowa and Minnesota increased corn planting by 250,000 acres each, while Wisconsin was up 200,000 acres, North Dakota and Ohio were up 150,000 acres, New York was up 110,000 acres, and Missouri and South Dakota were each up 100,000 acres.

Conversely, NASS reported Nebraska farmers cut back corn acreage by 350,000 acres.

SOYBEAN ACRES

NASS also increased soybean plantings by 1.4 million acres to 86.79 ma from the June report.

Missouri's planted soybean acreage was increased by 350,000 acres, followed by Mississippi at 330,000 acres and Minnesota at 300,000 acres. Arkansas and Nebraska each saw increases of 250,000 acres, followed by Wisconsin at 150,000 acres.

Illinois, Iowa and South Dakota each cut soybean planting by 200,000 acres, followed by Ohio, which was down by 150,000 acres, and North Carolina cut 100,000 acres.

COMBINED ACREAGE CHANGES

Looking at combined changes, NASS increased corn and soybean planted acres in Minnesota by 550,000 and in Missouri by 450,000 acres. Wisconsin saw a 350,000-acre combined acreage increase, and Mississippi acreage rose by 300,000 acres.

In its crop comments, NASS didn't provide much detail on the acreage changes for crops, but stated multiple times, "Acreage updates were made based on a thorough review of all available data."

On social media, NASS posted, "Today's estimates were based on acreage certified as planted by farmers to FSA. Principal crop acres are only up 0.4% from last year and right in line with recent years."

FSA CROP ACREAGE NUMBERS

The Farm Service Agency (FSA) also released reported crop acreage data on Wednesday, which comes from farmers who participate in USDA programs. FSA numbers are always slightly lower than NASS' because a small number of farms are not enrolled in USDA programs, so they are not required to provide their information.

FSA reported acreage:

-- Corn, 94.765 million acres.

-- Soybeans, 85.452 million acres.

-- Wheat, 45.984 million acres.

-- Total Cotton, 10.166 million acres.

FSA also reported prevented planting acres at 3.147 million acres, which is down from 4.866 million acres a year ago.

Chris Clayton can be reached at chris.clayton@dtn.com

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