Canada Markets

This study looks at Statistics Canada's December report on merchandise trade with a focus on ag commodities and products.

Statistics Canada released its Dec. 31 grain stocks estimates today, which were sharply higher that seen a year ago.

CGC's study looks at licensed deliveries of select crops into licensed facilities during the first half of the crop year, while calculating this volume as a percent of the total volume available for delivery, based on current government estimates.

The AMIS Market Monitor for February includes a higher revision for global wheat production, while ending stocks are forecast at 305 mmt, which exceeds the USDA's January estimate by a significant volume.

March oats reached their highest trade in more than 12 weeks on Feb. 1, although failed to close higher for a seventh session.

As of Jan. 24, commercial traders held a combined net-long position of SRW, HRW and HRS of 63,030 contracts, the largest held since July 2020.

March canola has extended its streak to four higher closes, with the Jan. 30 gain of $20.20/mt. Nervous short covering is seen contributing to this move.

Canada's wheat exports (excluding durum) continue to move at a pace that is ahead of the forecast pace, even as the forecast is steadily revised higher.

Durum bids have been under pressure so far this month, a move also mirrored in European bids.

This study looks at Canada's canola and soybean crush for the month of December, making comparisons to previous years while comparing the pace of crush with the pace needed to reach the current forecast pace.

AAFC's January estimates for the 2023-24 crop represent a snapshot in time and involve a number of assumptions. This study looks at AAFC's yield estimates for 2023-24 while comparing them to the five-year average and the 20-year trend.

This study looks at AAFC's first forecast for 2023-24, with a particular focus on the seeded acre forecast.

Grain inventories have swelled in the Port of Vancouver with recent delays backing up movement.

November canola closed in the lower end of the range traded since late November and is nearing a potential test of $800/mt support.

Food inflation in Canada continues to stand out when compared to the Consumer Price Index, while the year-over-year price change for some products, such as bakery and cereal products, remains stubbornly high.

Canola basis on the Prairies is seen strengthening, while Tuesday's reports show strength in the track Vancouver basis.

The Canadian dollar has strengthened during each of the past four weeks although the Jan/Feb/March period is normally a period of seasonal weakness.

AAFC has increased its wheat export forecast for Canada eight times since January 2022, including each of the past four months. The current pace of movement signals the potential for further upward revisions.

In advance of AAFC's first supply and demand estimates for the 2023-24 crop year to be released in January, this study looks at the historical change in estimated production from the January forecast to the final estimate reported by Statistics Canada.

This study looks at the Saskatchewan government's annual Crop Planning Guide for 2023, which estimates costs and returns for 30 crops.