Harvest progress advanced slightly in the week ending Nov. 15, with 87.2% of the province's crop estimated to be harvested compared to 81.3% as of the previous week. Across the five regions, progress ranges from 76.4% complete in the North West region to 99.9% in the South. Three of the province's five regions that are most affected have between 19% and 24% of the crop still in the field and it will appear that this area will miss out on the above-zero temperatures forecast for the southern areas of the province next week. The wettest area is the North West region, to the west and north of Edmonton, where 56% of the region is viewed as having excessive moisture.
Based on Statistics Canada's harvested acre estimates, Alberta Agriculture's estimate of harvest progress along with approximate yields, there is an estimated 569,000 metric tons of barley, 938,000 mt of canola, 151,000 mt of oats and 1 million mt of spring wheat that remain to be harvested in Alberta. This volume ranges from 4.3% of the national estimate for all-wheat (excluding durum) production to 6.7% of the estimate for Canada's total barley production. Lesser volumes of other crops are also affected.
Alberta Ag has estimated the province's CWRS grades to show 67.9% falling within the 1 CWRS and 2 CWRS grades, which compares to the five-year average of 78% and the 10-year average of 76%.
The delayed prairie harvest has continued to add uncertainty to the market this week. December hard red spring wheat moved above the March contract on Thursday and closed at a 2 3/4 cent inverse Friday after trading at an 8 1/4 cent carry (March trading above the December) as recently as Nov. 8, a sign of grower concern on the front end.
January canola posted a second consecutive higher weekly close this week during a time when canola typically shows weakness into mid-December. The weak carry seen through the balance of the crop year continues to point to a bullish view of fundamentals, further supported by Friday's data pointing to both an aggressive crush and exports in the most recent weekly data. This week's weekly trading bar ended with a near-perfect doji trading bar, with this week's open and close almost equal. This can be viewed as a sign of harmony between buyers and sellers, although the close near the upper-end of today's range hints that buyers remain in control.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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