A significant increase in Canada's carryout of flaxseed from 97,000 metric tons in 2014/15 to 274,000 mt for 2015/16 has allowed for an early start to exports in the 2016/17 crop year. Thursday's release of Statistics Canada's Exports of grains, by final destination report shows a total of 118,369 mt of flaxseed exported in August and September, the fastest start to movement since the first two months of the 2007/08 crop year. The 10-year average is 64,184 mt.
Over the past 10 years, an average of 10.9% of the annual export program was shipped in the first two months of the crop year, while the 2016 volume represents 19.7% of AAFC's estimated 600,000 mt of exports, a number which may prove high given the potential for some crop to be harvested in the spring along with reduced supplies due to quality issues. In 2015/16, just 4.7% of the annual sales program was shipped in August/September at 29,710 mt.
The bulk of the movement was to Western Europe, mostly Belgium, with China making up the bulk of shipments to Asia. Movement to China totaled 77,796 mt, up from just 3,615 mt moved in the same period in 2015.
Saskatchewan Agriculture's latest Market Trend bid is shown at $455.68/mt ($11.57/bu.) on average delivered to Saskatchewan plants as of Nov. 9, the highest it's been since late January and almost equal to where it was reported this time last year. This week's bids are even higher, with one Saskatchewan broker promoting milling flax at $13/bu. FOB farm in the January/March period ($511.78/mt) and No. 1 flax at $12.75/bu. or $501.94/mt delivered to Saskatchewan facilities.
Bids should remain firm with uncertainty surrounding both harvested volume and quality acting as a supportive feature.
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