The Canadian Grain Commission's week 18 statistics, which covers close to the first 35% of the crop year to the week ending Dec. 6, shows Canada's exports through licensed facilities at 15.660 million metric tons. This is up .3% from year-ago volumes and 26.6% above the five-year average, as the country's larger-than-expected crop, along with Canadian dollar weakness, is benefitting movement off of the country's shores.
Canada's wheat exports (excluding durum) are just .2% below the previous year at 6.179 mmt, while volumes are 23.1% above the five-year average. In an interview with Farm and Ranch Guide, Jim Peterson, marketing director of the North Dakota Wheat Commission, referred to Canada's aggressive pricing and stated "With the Canadian dollar value vs. the U.S. dollar, from a price standpoint they do have the upper hand." He also said that "... they had a high protein crop as well and will be a strong competitor throughout the year, especially on spring wheat."
Durum shipping is lagging, with year-to-date exports down 29.1% from year-ago volumes and 11.4% below the five-year average. Canada's lower supplies given a lower carry-in and the smaller crop will restrict export potential, while a rebound in the U.S. production will temper exports to that country. This week's USDA WASDE report left U.S. durum imports for 2015/16 at 40 million bushels or 1.089 mmt, down 20% from last year. Statistics Canada shows 42,632 metric tons shipped to the U.S. in the August-through-October period this fall, as compared to the 163,703 mt shipped in the first three months of the 2014/15 crop year.
Canola shipping remains robust, with cumulative exports as of week 18 reported at 3.466 mmt, 10.2% higher than the same period last year and 19.9% above the five-year average. This week, the USDA increased its estimate for Canada's exports to 8.5 mmt, up from the November AAFC estimate of 8 mmt, while exports as of week 18 are close to 700,000 mt above the cumulative volume needed to reach the 8 mmt target. Movement is supported by mid-winter weather and aggressive producer deliveries, up 9% from last year's pace.
Other grains whose licensed exports exceed year-ago volumes include oats (1.9%), soybeans (15%), peas (2.7%), corn (2.7%) and lentils (55.6%), with gains sown in parenthesis.
Grains showing lagging exports through licensed facilities include barley (16.9%) and flax (36.5%).
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