Canada Markets

2014 and 2015 Hard Red Spring Wheat Yields and Percentage of Trend

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The green and yellow bars represent the yield for hard red spring wheat for 2014 and 2015 for the Prairies and Canada as a whole, as measured against the primary vertical axis. The blue line represents the percent of the 20-year trend in 2014, while the black line is the percent of the 20-year trend achieved in 2015, as measured against the secondary vertical axis on the right. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

The Dec. 4 Statistics Canada report showed Canada's all-wheat production to be one of the few crops that failed to realize a year-over-year increase in production in 2015. While there was an overall increase of 1% in Canada's all-wheat harvested acres, hard red spring wheat production in the country faced both a lower yield and lower harvested acres. The latter fell 1.5% from 2014, to 14.481 million acres, the lowest harvested acres reported by Statistics Canada since 2011.

The average hard red spring wheat yield was reported at 42.8 bushels per acre for Canada, down 3.4% from 2014. The attached graphic shows the year-over-year change across the Prairies and for Canada as a whole, as reported in Statistics Canada's Dec. 4 report. While Manitoba's yield increased 1.2% from the 2014 yield to 49.2 bpa, the Saskatchewan yield fell 2% to 38.5 bpa and the Alberta yield fell 3.4% to 42.8 bpa.

The two lines on the graphic contrast the yields achieved in the past two years as compared to their respective 20-year moving averages. The 2014 yield is compared to yields achieved in the 1994-to-2013 period (blue line), while 2015 yields are reported as a percentage of the previous 20-year trend, from 1995 to 2014 (black line).

The blue line is flatter, with 2014 yields ranging from 101.6% of the 20-year trend in Alberta to 103.5% of the 20-year trend in Manitoba, with the country's average yield calculated at 102% of the 20-year trend.

The black line shows the disparity across the Prairies in 2015. Yields ranged from 102.3% of the 20-year trend in Manitoba while the average yield for Alberta is calculated at 90.75% of the province's 20-year trend. Canada's overall average yield of 42.8 bpa is indicated to be 96.2% of the 20-year trend.

Using simple trend forecasting tools within Excel, 2016 yields would be forecast at 49.9 bpa in Manitoba, 39.7 bpa in Saskatchewan and 50.8 bpa in Alberta. Canada's 20-year trend could also be used to forecast the average national yield at 45.3 bpa.

DTN 360 Poll

This week's poll asks what you think about Statistics Canada's recent estimate of 17.2 million metric tons for 2015 canola production. Do you believe it? You can weigh in with your thoughts on DTN's 360 poll found on the lower right of your DTN Home Page. We would like to thank all those for their past contributions to DTN polls.

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