Ag Policy Blog

U.S. agricultural exports to China fell by $14.9 billion during most of 2025 and early 2026 and hit the lowest level since 2007 as the two countries went back and forth with retaliatory tariffs.

A study released by North Dakota State University's Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies breaks down how China's retaliatory tariffs last year reduced agricultural exports from March 2025 through February 2026.

At $8.4 billion, agricultural exports to China in 2025 also fell to their lowest level since 2007. Soybean exports fell 76% and beef exports declined 69%. Cotton exports dropped 85%.

Chinese tariffs peaked at 125% from March to May last year, then dropped down to 10% to 15% but Chinese officials continued to restrict purchases of U.S. agricultural goods. Chinese buyers did not start buying U.S. soybeans again until last December.

White House officials returned last week from China with the U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announcing China had agreed to buy $17 billion in agricultural commodities annually for three years on top of the commitment to buy at least 25 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans each year. NDSU stated the $17 billion beyond soybeans "implies a floor of roughly $28 (billion) to $30 billion in annual agricultural shipments to China across 2026 through 2028."

So far it is unclear which agricultural commodities would be the winners under the agreement, but China also agreed to reauthorize more than 400 U.S. beef processing facilities for export. China also has agreed to resume imports of U.S. poultry.

The report reflects lost exports to China, not lost exports overall. NDSU noted a portion of lost shipments to China were sold to other markets instead.

Geographically, the NDSU report shows farmers in Iowa, California and Illinois were hit the hardest with exposure averaging about $1.2 billion in each state, followed by Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Missouri, Indiana, South Dakota, Ohio, Arkansas and North Dakota.

The export losses don't necessarily mesh with the $9.7 billion in payments sent to farmers this spring under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program created by USDA. Still, it should be noted USDA did not specifically peg FBA payments to lost exports to China. FBA also specifically went toward crop losses.

Drawing a comparison:

-- NDSU shows soybean farmers lost $6.8 billion in export sales while FBA payments to soybean producers totaled $2.3 billion.

-- Cotton farmers lost $1.3 billion in exports to China and have received just under $900 million.

-- Tree nuts lost $964 million in exports, but USDA created a broader $1 billion aid program, the Assistance for Specialty Crop Farmers (ASCF) that will also include economic losses for fruits and vegetable growers.

For more details, go to, NDSU's Ag Trade Monitor, https://www.capts-ndsu.com/….

Also see, "China to Buy $17 Billion in Ag Products," https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @ChrisClaytonDTN

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