Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $52.83, down $2.76 on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend turned down during March with the lower monthly close establishing a bearish crossover by monthly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%. Initial support is at the new 4-month low of $49.71, then $47.95. The latter marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $27.10 (January 2016) through the high of $58.37 (January 2017). The 50% retracement level is down at $42.73.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $50.60, down $3.41 on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend turned down during March with the lower monthly close establishing a bearish crossover by monthly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%. Initial support is at the new 4-month low of $47.01, then $45.52. The latter marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $26.05 (February 2016) through the high of $55.24 (January 2017). The 50% retracement level is down at $40.63.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed at $1.5736, down 4.72ct on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend turned down during March with the lower monthly close establishing a bearish crossover by monthly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%. Initial support is at the new 4-month low of $1.5736, then $1.4148. The latter marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $$0.8487 (January 2016) through the high of $1.7647 (January 2017). The 50% retracement level is down at $1.3067.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed at $1.7001, up 18.81cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up with initial resistance at $1.7571. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.4789 through the low of $0.8975. Monthly stochastics are above the overbought level of 80%, setting the stage for a possible bearish crossover.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed at $1.614, up 8.9cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways. Resistance is at $1.712, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.07 (July 2011) through the double-bottom low of $1.292 (January 2015 and January 2016). Support is at the double-bottom low.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed at $3.190, up 41.6cts on the monthly chart. The market looks to be resuming its major (long-term) uptrend, with the recent 2-month sell-off looking like a retracement of 5-wave uptrend. The spot-month contract held support at $2.521, the 61.8% retracement level of the rally from $1.611 through the high of $3.994. Weekly stochastics remains bearish, though never establishing a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed at $0.5525, down 2.50cts on its monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains down following the bearish reversal posted during February. Cash propane remains below support at $0.5813, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.2525 through the February high of $0.9100. The 67% retracement level is down at $0.4714.

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