South America Calling

Fieldwork progress across central Brazil has been slow but steady between scattered showers, but they're still behind schedule. According to the latest planting and harvesting progress report released by Conab, Brazil's equivalent of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), 20.8% of Mato Grosso's safrinha (second season) corn crop has been planted as of Feb. 9. If the safrinha corn is not planted by Feb. 21, it is considered late. It's evident that states in central Brazil are running behind on planting, but luckily, the forecast may pan out for them next week with the return of drier and warmer conditions.

Not only is safrinha corn planting behind schedule, but soybean harvest is as well. Conab's Feb. 9 report had Mato Grosso at 27.5% of their soybeans harvested. Compared to 2024, they had nearly 45.4% of their soybeans harvested by Feb. 10. States surrounding Mato Grosso, like Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias, aren't nearly as behind on their soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting compared to last year. Although, Mato Grosso alone accounts for nearly 25% of the total soybeans produced in Brazil. Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias come in at 8% and 10% respectively.

Even though progress in the soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting is behind, they'll have more opportunities to get out in the fields next week. DTN's forecasts that precipitation could approach up to 10-30 millimeters (0.4-1.2 inches) below average from Feb. 19-23. The European ECMWF model and American GFS model also show a significant reduction in the coverage of precipitation starting Feb. 18. Overall, it's looking like precipitation amounts for Feb. 19-23 for states like Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias could approach 2.5-20 millimeters (0.10-0.75 inches), while Mato Grosso will come in a little higher at 5-35 millimeters (0.2-1.4 inches). Some of the higher rainfall amounts in Mato Grosso favor the northern half of the state.

Next week's below-average precipitation offers some hope that more progress will be made on soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. Although, there's a lingering risk that the late planted corn will run into problems when the dry season begins, and the corn is going through pollination. Brazil's dry season usually starts around May, so there's still a few months to go before that develops. However, there's a lot of ground to cover before Feb. 21, and the late-planted corn will run the risk of taking a yield hit when drier conditions and warmer temperatures hit as the corn is pollinating.

Looking beyond next week's forecast, long-range model guidance keeps drier-than-normal conditions in place across most of the main growing areas in central Brazil through the end of February and early March. For northern areas of Mato Grosso, they could be a bit closer to average or even above-average for precipitation. If this forecast holds, we're likely to see soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting get closer to where they should be for this time of the year, but showers may set back progress from time to time across northern Mato Grosso.

Another factor worth noting is temperatures. Long-range model guidance suggest that temperatures could be near to above average into the end of February across central Brazil. Any warmer temperatures will likely help soils dry out faster if rain showers push through. Cooler temperatures usually slow down the rate of evaporation, therefore taking longer to dry out the topsoil.

We'll continue to monitor the soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting across central Brazil over the next few weeks. However, if you're wanting to track the weekly reports that Conab releases on Monday's for their planting and harvesting progress, you can view them here: https://www.conab.gov.br/…

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, visit https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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