South America Calling

Period of Heavy Rain Moving Through Central Brazil During Soybean Harvest

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
Heavy rain is forecast for central Brazil at the end of January; amounts of 50-100 millimeters (2-4 inches) are common, while some spots in the region will eclipse that. (DTN graphic)

Heavy rain has been occurring in central Brazil for a very long time. It has allowed the forecasts for the soybean crop to be very high, but it is now starting to complicate the harvest process. A burst of heavy rain moving through next week is going to push back some plans, and the length of time this stays in the region will have a dramatic effect on the ability of producers in the region to harvest their soybeans and plant their corn.

Producers are getting a break this week, however, and harvest is now fully underway. Showers have become isolated and are expected to last through Jan. 25 or 26 before starting to become more scattered and heavier for next week. That should allow for some progress to be made. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) has reported, though progress has been slow, producers were able to get some work done. They are still very far behind, however. As of Jan. 24, just over 4% of harvest is complete in the state of Mato Grosso, the country's largest soybean producer, compared to 13% on average and 21.5% last year. That should not be surprising given that planting was delayed by about 10-14 days into mid-October, which would push the start of harvest back about the same length of time. But that just squeezes the primary window even tighter than usual. There is now only a month in which producers have a goal of completing at least 80% of soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. Safrinha cotton, another important crop, is also well behind the average planting pace, with just 28.5% planted compared to 53% on average and 77% last year. You can access those reports here: https://www.imea.com.br/….

Producers in central Brazill harvest their soybeans and immediately plant a second season (safrinha) corn crop right behind their combines, given good weather in which to do so. They try to accomplish this by the third week in February to allow the corn crop to get through pollination before wet season rains shut down in early May. If there are delays, that puts their corn crop at a significant risk with no rain and stressful heat of nearly 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) going into the start of the dry season. If the crop can make it through pollination, there is typically enough built-up soil moisture to produce a decent corn crop.

So, when a period of heavy rain comes during the primary harvest period, that can really set producers back. With showers increasing in coverage and intensity beginning Jan. 26 or 27, the length of time these showers continue to exert pressure on farmers will be significant. As of Jan. 23, those showers were forecast through the end of the model runs on Feb. 6. However, the runs of both the European and GFS models on Jan. 24 indicated these showers could start shutting down Feb. 4-5. Current forecasts are calling for an average of 50-100 millimeters (2-4 inches) through at least Feb. 2, with pockets well over 100 millimeters (mm) generally in the states of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Goias, but possibly in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul as well. A brief, slower period of showers could help producers make up ground again in early February, but there are no guarantees.

Producers are used to working around these rainfall patterns. This is the rainy season in this region after all. But too much rain can still bog down operations and lead to quality reductions for soybeans and transportation issues. Many of the rural roads are unpaved, leading to degradation, road washouts and stuck trucks when they are heavily traveled during harvest. Every day matters this time of year, and it is a race to complete fieldwork prior to the end of February in the hopes of a good corn crop.

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, visit https://www.dtnpf.com/….

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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