Sort & Cull

You'll Never Outthink the Cattle Market

ShayLe Stewart
By  ShayLe Stewart , DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle market fundamentals remain extremely bullish. Some extra volatility comes naturally with these record high prices. (DTN photo by ShayLe Stewart)

This past weekend was one I always look forward to every year. The last couple of weeks have been beyond chaotic for us on our operation as we've gotten the last of the bulls delivered that sold in our April sale, branded our calves, AI-ed our cows, and finally we were able to ship them out to summer grass.

While trailing the cattle to the back pasture this weekend, I couldn't help but think about the state of our world and our market while I was pushing up the drag.

On the one hand, my stomach was uneasy about how the market was likely going to react early Monday morning to the news that the United States had bombed Iran on Saturday. In addition, although the pastures were green and stocked with adequate feed, drought could quickly sneak up on us. Hopefully the new pairs we just bought would pan out, but time would have to tell on that situation.

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On the other hand, being out in the open desert in central Wyoming quickly reminded me of God's blessings and just how fortunate we truly are.

That's the tricky thing about the world in which we play -- we as cattlemen, I mean. You can sharpen your pencil, home in on your operation's cash flow projections, estimated expenses and income -- but you're never going to outthink the cattle market.

Which is why I think it's imperative we only take calculated risks in this business. Simply put, this marketplace is too vulnerable and volatile on its own, let alone when you and I start thinking of ways we may expedite growth and hopefully secure genuine profits.

We know since the market is trading at historic levels there's a level of volatility that naturally comes with these prices. I hope you dive into the details of your operation's financials and are strategically positioned to capitalize on the market's current strength. You and I both know the market's current position is because of bullish fundamentals; but we also know the futures complex could turn soft and forget about all the market's fundamentals in a heartbeat. So again, I urge you to sit down and strategize your marketing plan for 2025 so you can generate as much profit as possible. Because when volatility creeps in, it's easier to think clearly when you have a plan mapped out as opposed to panicking and feeding off the market's sometimes knee-jerk reactions.

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Editor's Note: Get ahead of the herd with the latest insights on the cattle market's changing cycle. Join us on Tuesday, June 24, from 10 a.m. CDT to noon for an in-depth analysis of how weather patterns, trade disruptions, and drought are reshaping the beef industry's traditional 10-year cycle. Oklahoma State University Livestock Marketing Specialist Dr. Derrell Peel shares what the cowherd of the future will look like, while DTN experts share details on weather conditions for forage and pastures, hay market dynamics and what it all means for fat and live cattle prices. Register for free here: https://dtn.link/….

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

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