Fundamentally Speaking

A host of negative factors have greeted the grain and oilseed markets since the start of the year including some bearish data on USDA reports released January 12, forecasts for record South American corn and soybean production remaining on track, a continuation of a rather lackluster pace of U.S. export sales, and the ongoing economic malaise in China, our largest customer for a variety of agricultural products.

As we end the first month of the year, corn, soybeans and wheat are posting some of the largest percent declines for January seen in quite a while with values off sharply from year ago levels.

This chart shows the percent change in spot corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat for the month of January from 2000 to 2024 on the left-hand axis while reported on the right-hand axis is the percent change vs. the year ago level as of the end of January.

Spot corn was down 4.9% last month, which is the largest percent decline for January since 2015 and the third largest decline since 2001.

The closing price at $4.48, down 34.1% from the year ago value and is the largest year-on-year decline as of the end of January since 2014 and the second greatest drop since 2000.

Spot soybeans were down 5.6% last month, which is the largest percent decline for January since 2020 and the fourth largest decline in 20 years.

The closing price at $12.22 is down 20.5% from the year ago value and the largest year-on-year decline as of the end of January since 2015 and the fourth greatest drop since 2000.

Finally spot Chicago was down 5.1% last month which is the largest percent decline for January also since 2015, while the closing price at $5.95 is down 21.7% from the year ago price, and that is the largest year-on-year decline as of the end of January since 2014 and the fourth great drop since 2000.

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