Fundamentally Speaking

Strong 2016 U.S. Corn Yields

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

The USDA upped its 2016 U.S. corn yield projection by a sharp 1.9 bushels per acre (bpa) in its November crop production report with the yield at an even higher all-time peak of 175.3 bpa.

Even though the USDA had lowered its national corn yield projection in both the September and October crop reports, in a prior post we had pointed out that the 12 times this had happened since 1970, six times the government reversed course and hiked the corn yield in the November report.

We have updated the chart that shows the USDA corn yield estimates for the top producing states and the U.S. in bushels per acre, that yield as a percent of the 1989-2015 trend and where that 2016 yield ranks for each state in the 1989-2015 range.

No doubt the 2016 U.S. corn crop will go down as one of the best in history as evidenced by a yield that is 5.9% above trend with six of the top 18 states having their best yield ever.

Illinois was the top yielding state at 202.0 bpa though North Carolina's yield at 144.0 bpa was highest in terms of being above trend at 19.5% above the 1989-2015 trend.

Only four states saw below trend yields including OH, MI, PA and Texas.

It is safe to say however that this probably is not the best year ever for U.S. corn for in 1994 final yields were 11.9% above trend while in 2004 they were 12.1% above trend while in 2009 twelve of the 18 top states had new all-time high yields while in 2004 thirteen states achieved that distinction vs. the mere half dozen this season.



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