Canada Markets

The Saskatchewan government's Crop Planning Guide 2024 uses a number of assumptions to estimate returns for 31 different field crops for 2024, while including a spreadsheet available for download at https://www.saskatchewan.ca/… so returns can be tailored using individual farm data.

The yield targeted for each crop is based on the five-year average of the 80th percentile of the yield achieved in each of the three soil zones, or described as the yield at which 80% of producers achieve a yield that is lower than the target yield.

The estimates are a snapshot in time, with crop prices, interest rates and input costs bound to fluctuate. Costs from farm to farm will vary widely with the timing of management decisions surrounding purchases and sales.

Of the crops analyzed, only two combinations lead to a negative return relative to variable costs in this year's analysis. These are hybrid fall rye leading to a loss of $73.23/acre when grown in the brown soil zone, along with soybeans, with a loss of $60.91/acre in the brown soil zone.

The largest returns across all crops are seen for small crops, with faba bean returns at $677.81/acre and quinoa returns close at $672.94/acre, both produced in the black soil zone.

When this data is compared to the same report released in January 2023, the largest changes include a drop of three spots within the ranked crops for winter wheat, which fell from the fourth lowest ranking in 2023 to the lowest for 2024, or a 49% drop in the estimated return over variable expenses to $63.82. The ranking for oats improved by three spots or by 37.8% from a year ago to $207.70/acre. The estimated return for green peas also saw a shift of three spots within the ranking of the select crops, up 52.8% from a year ago to $417.59/ac, the second-highest of the crops shown on the attached chart. The oats data in particular is consistent with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) early forecast for 2024, which includes a forecast 27% increase in the acres to be planted to oats this spring.

When the return over total expenses is considered in the provincial data, we see that positive returns are generated for canola, large green lentils, red lentils and green peas across all three soil zones of Saskatchewan. At the same time, there is a negative return over total expenses across all three soil zones when producing soybeans and barley in the province.

The government's wheat data shows hard red spring wheat generating a return over total expenses in the black soil zone only, while a positive return is shown for durum produced in both the brown and dark brown soil zones.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @CliffJamieson

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @CliffJamieson.

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