Canada Markets

Following this week's Statistics Canada production estimates, official data shows Canada's average spring wheat yield is reported at 47.5 bushels per acre (bpa), down 5.7 bpa or 10.7%, the second-lowest yield seen in eight years. When compared to the 20-year trend, this is 6.2 bpa or 11.5% below the trendline yield of 53.7 bpa based on the linear trend calculated using Excel.

As seen in the attached chart, the year-over-year drop in yield across the prairies ranged from .1 bpa or .2% in Manitoba (green line) to the 11 bpa or 18.9% drop realized in Alberta (purple line). For comparison's sake, the drop in yield seen in 2021 ranged from a 13.6 bpa drop in Manitoba to a 20 bpa drop in Alberta, according to official estimates.

When compared to the respective 20-year trend, the 2023 Manitoba yield was 4.6% below trendline yield, the Saskatchewan yield was 10% below trend and the Alberta yield was 15.2% below trend.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

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