Canada Markets

A Look at Prairie Spring Wheat Yields in 2023

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart shows the trend in spring wheat yields for Canada and the three prairie provinces. It highlights the drop in 2023, the second year-over-year drop in three years. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Following this week's Statistics Canada production estimates, official data shows Canada's average spring wheat yield is reported at 47.5 bushels per acre (bpa), down 5.7 bpa or 10.7%, the second-lowest yield seen in eight years. When compared to the 20-year trend, this is 6.2 bpa or 11.5% below the trendline yield of 53.7 bpa based on the linear trend calculated using Excel.

As seen in the attached chart, the year-over-year drop in yield across the prairies ranged from .1 bpa or .2% in Manitoba (green line) to the 11 bpa or 18.9% drop realized in Alberta (purple line). For comparison's sake, the drop in yield seen in 2021 ranged from a 13.6 bpa drop in Manitoba to a 20 bpa drop in Alberta, according to official estimates.

When compared to the respective 20-year trend, the 2023 Manitoba yield was 4.6% below trendline yield, the Saskatchewan yield was 10% below trend and the Alberta yield was 15.2% below trend.

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