Canada Markets

The final Alberta Crop Report for the week ending Oct. 17 and the final Saskatchewan Crop Report for the week ending Oct. 16 were released late last week. Yields estimated by provincial inspectors were revised higher for many crops for both provinces when compared to estimates released early in October, as harvest nears an end overall.

The attached chart shows a potential change in production when provincial estimates are compared to Statistics Canada's latest official yield estimates based on August model data, potentially signaling upward revisions to the official estimates when Statistics Canada reports on Dec. 4. Calculations are based on Statistics Canada official harvested acre estimates.

The chart shows the Saskatchewan/Alberta production changes based on provincial average yields, less the Statistics Canada yield estimate while multiplied by Statistics Canada's official harvested acre estimate for 2023.

As seen with the green bars on the attached chart, the largest potential changes are seen for spring wheat, barley and peas, while the estimated canola production would increase only marginally based on provincial estimates.

The 1.4-million-metric-ton increase in spring wheat production calculated includes assumptions based on historical relationships. Saskatchewan's Crop Report data is broken down into a hard red spring wheat estimate as well as in other wheat class estimate which includes spring wheat other than HRS. To-date, Statistics Canada has only released a spring wheat estimate, which will be expanded further in the December repot. In order to make a direct comparison, the five-year average of harvested acres in Saskatchewan, which shows 90% HRS and 10% other, is used to calculate a blended yield estimate.

The Alberta wheat yield is based on dryland yields only, while over the past five years, Statistics Canada's official estimate has averaged 4.3 bushels per acre higher than Alberta Agriculture's final estimate, so the Alberta yield estimate was revised higher by this amount.

The end result is that provincial estimates lead to a spring wheat production estimate that is 1.4 million metric tons higher than Statistics Canada's latest estimates. Previous analysis has shown that Statistics Canada's spring wheat production estimate for all three provinces combined was revised higher from the September estimates, based on August model data, to the estimates released in December in two of the past three years, while averaging 331,000 mt higher.

This study would also signal the potential for a 691,090 mt increase in barley production, a 444,172 mt increase in dry pea production, a 163,940 mt increase in oat production and a modest 54,951 mt increase in canola production.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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