Canada Markets

Despite a smaller crop, Canada's wheat (excluding durum) exports are off to a good start during the first 10 weeks of the 2023-24 crop year. On Thursday, the Canadian Grain Commission reported week 10 exports, covering activity through the week ending Oct. 8, at 549,400 metric tons (mt), the second highest weekly volume shipped this crop year while the second time exports have exceeded 500,000 mt in three weeks. This volume is above the volume needed to reach Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's forecast exports of 18 million metric tons (mmt) for the fourth time in six weeks.

Cumulative exports of 3.8415 mmt are 504,700 mt, or 15.1% higher than the same period last crop year, while 523,500 mt or 15.8% higher than the three-year average.

During the last five years, cumulative licensed exports as of week 10 accounted for anywhere from 16.2% to 21.7% of total exports for the crop year, averaging 18.4%. The five-year average projects forward to 2023-24 crop year exports of 20.9 mmt, although supplies will be the limiting factor.

The USDA's October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is forecasting higher exports for Canadian wheat exports than forecast by AAFC in its September supply and demand estimates. The USDA is forecasting exports for Canada's all-wheat at 23 mmt, unchanged this month, which compares to AAFC's 21.3 mmt. Using AAFC's 3.3 mmt durum export forecast, this would imply the U.S. forecast is for 3.3 mmt of durum and 19.7 mmt for wheat, or 1.7 mmt higher than the Canadian forecast for wheat excluding durum.

Based on the October WASDE estimates, this places Canada as the No. 3 wheat exporter for 2023-24, after Russia and Europe. This is up from the fourth spot in 2022-23, with Russia, Europe and Australia being the top three exporters.

Based on the USDA's global ending stocks estimates, stocks estimated for the top eight exporters are forecast to fall by 8.273 mmt or 13.5% year-over-year to 53.024 mmt, accounting for 20.5% of global stocks, the smallest percentage calculated in at least 25 years.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, Cliff Jamieson

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @Cliff Jamieson

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