Canada Markets

Statistics Canada's field crop reporting series production estimates for crops based on July model data, released in late August, followed by another model-based estimate based on August conditions, was released in mid-September. The official estimates will be updated in early December, based on November survey data from producers.

Meanwhile, the provinces are releasing periodic estimates based on field reporters who are walking fields, conversing with producers and checking yield monitor data.

This week, Saskatchewan Agriculture released crop yield estimates as of Oct. 2, which updates its previous estimate from Sept. 4.

In summary, the provincial government decreased its yield estimates for winter wheat, spring wheat, oats, chickpeas and rye. It increased its estimate for yields for the eight other crops monitored and left the flax estimate unchanged.

When these revised estimates are compared to Statistics Canada's latest official estimate, released Sept. 14, the attached chart (Saskatchewan estimate -- Statistics Canada estimate) applied across Statistics Canada's estimated harvested acres would result in a smaller crop of winter wheat, oats and canola. The size of the remaining crops shown would increase.

The provincial yield estimate for hard red spring (HRS) wheat was reduced by 3 bushels per acre (bpa) to 39 bpa while the other spring wheat category shows average yield falling by 2 bpa to 4 bpa. Statistics Canada's official data shows Saskatchewan HRS making up 90% of the spring wheat produced on average, which points to an implied provincial average yield of 39.2 bpa for all spring wheat. As seen in the chart, the provincial estimate would result in an additional 400,000 metric tons (mt) of spring wheat produced.

Perhaps the most puzzling data in the report is seen in the durum estimate. You know there's a problem when your company immediately receives a response from Europe questioning what has happened in the province.

Saskatchewan Agriculture increased its average durum yield from 23 bpa to 33 bpa. Across the five regions of the province where they note production, the largest change was in the Northeast Region where little is grown where they show a 9 bpa increase, while the other four larger producing regions shows a range in the month-over-month estimate that varies from a 2 bpa drop to a 2 bpa increase. The reported provincial change is mathematically impossible; today's social media banter indicates that the government has been notified and will be making a correction.

Saskatchewan Agriculture increased its forecast for estimated canola yield from 31 bpa to 32 bpa this month, which is still .8 bpa lower than the official 32.8 bpa. The provincial yield estimate would result in a 225,000 mt drop in overall production based on the official harvested acre estimate.

An upward revision to the province's dry pea and lentil yield estimates shows production moving higher relative to the official yield estimates, as seen in the chart. It would equate to a 291,000 mt increase in dry pea production and a 535,000 mt increase in lentil production.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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