Canada Markets

A Look at the USDA's Global Rapeseed Estimates

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Based on the USDA's September estimate of global rapeseed/canola production less consumption, consumption is forecast to exceed production for the third time in five years in 2023-24. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The USDA's data for global rapeseed/canola shows global production falling by 3.375 million metric tons (mmt)in 2023-23 to 85.173 mmt. Revisions noted this month include a lower revision in an 800,000 metric tons (mt) drop in Canadian production to 18.2 mmt and a 500,000 mt drop for the E.U. This was partially offset by a 400,000 mt increase for the "Other" category, which may include a higher revision for Ukraine.

This reflects the first year-over-year drop in production in four years, while the year-over-year drop of 3.375 mmt is the largest in production seen in USDA data since 2000-01, or 23 years. Note that the production estimate for Canada at 18.2 mmt is roughly 600,000 mt higher than Statistics Canada's estimate based on the July model. It will revise this estimate on Sept. 14.

At the same time, the USDA has estimated global consumption at a record 85.587 mmt, an estimate that has been reported higher for five consecutive years. The year-over-year increase is calculated at 726,000 metric tons, which is the smallest year-over-year change seen in four years, while the five-year average change is 2.553 mmt.

The chart's bars represent global production less consumption. The result for 2023-24 is calculated at minus 404,000 mt with global consumption exceeding production for the third time in five years.

The USDA estimates global ending stocks at 6.119 mmt, down 1.426 mmt from 2022-23, which is over 1 mmt lower than the five-year average of 7.178 mmt. For a fourth consecutive year and the seventh time in seven years, the global stocks/use ratio is seen as a single-digit at 7.2%, the second-lowest percentage calculated over this period.

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