As of week 48, or the week ended July 2, the Canadian Grain Commission reports producers have delivered 56.5485 million metric tons (mmt) of principal field crops into the licensed handling system, up 40.8% from the previous crop year and 6.8% higher than the five-year average.
By crop, the largest increases seen versus the five-year average are reported for wheat, 15% higher than the five-year average; durum, up 18.6% from average; and oats, up 14.7% from average. Flax deliveries are down 49% from average and canola deliveries are down 1.7% from average.
The attached chart views deliveries as a percentage of available supplies as of week 48 to search for any potential inconsistencies in current estimates. Supplies are calculated by adding the estimated July 31 farm stocks to the production forecast for the year, signaling the total volume available for delivery by producers.
Two crops stand out according to this study-- durum and canola.
As of week 48, producers have delivered 90% of the available durum based on current official estimates from Statistics Canada, or 4.9568 mmt. Over the past five years, producers have delivered an average of 73.6% of supplies. This signals that either producers have been aggressively delivering production this crop year, or official estimates have understated ending stocks and/or production in 2021-22.
A similar situation can be seen for canola, where the 16.946 mmt delivered accounts for 92% of estimated supplies available for delivery, which compares to the five-year average of 83.5%.
This bears watching as we watch for the data over the final four weeks of the crop year.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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