Canada Markets

AAFC Forecasts Record Corn Exports for 2022-23

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent Canada's May through August corn exports over the past 10 years, measured against the primary vertical axis. The brown line represents the volume shipped over the final four months as a percentage of total crop year exports, measured against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The June Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops supply and demand estimates included a 200,000 metric ton upward revision in the forecast for Canada's corn exports to 2.050 million metric tons. This would achieve a record volume shipped for Canada, up 17.4% from the reported volume for 2021-22.

Statistics Canada's cumulative exports for April were reported at 1.366 million metric tons, up 16.7% from the same period last crop year.

The attached chart shows that exports are seasonally weighted heavily over the final four months of the crop year. While April through September exports totaled 574,858 mt in 2021-22, the 5-year average for this period is 661,932 mt and the 10-year average is 691,552 mt. In two of the past 10 years, exports over the past four months have exceeded 1 mmt.

When viewed as a percentage of crop year exports, exports have averaged 48% of the total crop year exports over the past five years and 49% of crop year exports over the past 10 years over the final four months of the crop year. Exports are clearly weighted heavily in the final months of the crop year.

Statistics Canada data going back to 1996 shows exports breaching 1 mmt in the 1998/99 crop year, while breaching 1 mmt in 10 crop years since then, including the current year.

Crop year imports were revised 150,000 mt higher this month to 2.150 mmt to keep the supply in balance, with ending stocks revised 100,000 mt lower to 2.4 mmt, down 12.6% from the previous year.

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