Canada Markets

U.S. Spring Wheat Condition Rating Compared to the Last 20 Years

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This week's USDA Crop Progress report rated the spring wheat condition at 51% good-to-excellent as of June 18, shown by the blue bars against the primary vertical axis, which is the third-lowest rating seen for this week over the past 20 years. The brown line represents the final HRS average yield, measured against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The USDA's Crop Progress report as of June 18 shows the U.S. spring wheat crop condition falling from 60% good-to-excellent(G/E) for the week of June 11 to 51% G/E. This represents a second weekly drop in the estimated condition, after being reported at 64% G/E in early June.

As seen on the attached chart, the condition rating for this week is the third lowest when compared to the condition estimates over the past 20 years, with the June 20, 2021 rating at 27% G/E while the June 18, 2017 rating was 41% G/E.

While the trend in this rating over the balance of the growing season will be weather dependent, the 2017 rating for this week declined further to a low of 31% G/E while ending at 34% prior to harvest. The June 2021 rating continued to deteriorate to a low of 9%, while ending at 11%, also signaling further deterioration.

The brown line with markers represents the year-over-year change in the U.S. HRS yield for these years. In 2017, the average yield fell to 39.8 bushels/acre, down 14% from the previous year and 12.8% below the previous five-year average.

In 2021, the average HRS yield is shown at 31.7 bpa, down 32.4% from the previous year and 30.4% below the five-year average.

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