Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported 922,944 metric tons (mt) of canola crushed in March, the largest monthly crush in 24 months and well-above the 759,333 mt needed this month to stay on track to reach the current AAFC forecast of 9.5 million metric tons (mmt). A calculation for the month of April shows this volume needed falls to 718,430 mt in order to stay on track to reach the current forecast, which may be revised higher.

The cumulative crush is seen at 6.626 mmt after eight months, up 13.8% from last year and a modest 1.3% above the three-year average for this period. The cumulative crush is 4.6% higher than the steady pace needed to reach the current forecast.

Statistics Canada data shows the oil content for the month of March at 41.7%, the highest percentage reported in three months. The cumulative average oil content is 41.5% over eight months, down from the final of 41.8% in 2021-22 and the three-year average of 43%.

A ProphetX chart approximating the move in the Canola Board Margin Index, based on continuous active contracts, shows the crush margin calculated at $232.95/mt in March, up from $223.78/mt calculated for the previous month. The mean index calculated over the August-through-February period is seen at $233.33/mt.

Statistics Canada also reported 154,670 mt of soybeans reported crushed in the month of March, up from the previous month while the third-lowest crush seen this crop year (September to March). This is below the 161,359 mt needed this month to stay on track to reach the current AAFC forecast of 1.9 mmt.

The cumulative soybean crush is seen at 1.087 mmt, close to equal to the volume crushed during the same period in 2021-22, while behind the steady pace needed to reach the current forecast. This volume is 3.9% higher than the three-year average for this period.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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