The Historical Price Trend for Large Green Lentils
Saskatchewan Agriculture's weekly market trends reported the large green lentil bid at $51/cwt delivered to Saskatchewan processing plants as of Dec. 7, after holding steady at $51.50/cwt for three consecutive weeks. This is despite Statistics Canada's most recent production estimate that resulted in an overall reduction in the lentil production estimate by 476,330 metric tons (mt) from the September estimate to 2.301 million metric tons (mmt).
The five-year average trend shown by the black line on the attached chart shows price strengthening on average from week 31 of the year at 30.78 cents/lb. to a year-end average of 35.64 cents/lb., according to Saskatchewan Agriculture data.
At the same time, the brown line, representing the price trend for 2022, shows three consecutive lower highs reached on the chart, the last being a move to 52.5 cents, which was reported for three consecutive weeks only to give way to a move lower. In other words, current price is diverging from the historical move and the spread between the current price and five-year average is seen narrowing.
While exports are expected to strengthen, a breach of the recent 52.5-cent high will be needed to signal an upward leg to higher levels.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @Cliff Jamieson
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