DTN Oil Update
Oil Prices Partially Rebound on Easing Trade Tensions
VIENNA (DTN) -- Oil prices rose on Monday, Oct. 13, morning trade after statements by U.S. President Donald Trump eased Sino-American trade war concerns. Futures plummeted to five-month lows on Friday after Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on imports from China.
The front-month NYMEX WTI crude futures contract rose $0.57 to $59.47 bbl, and ICE Brent for December delivery gained $0.55 to $63.28 bbl.
Downstream, November RBOB gasoline futures advanced $0.0144 to $1.8348 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures rose $0.0285 to $2.2329 gallon.
The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened, up 0.248 points to 99.015 against a basket of foreign currencies.
So far this year, the Trump administration has levied punitive trade tariffs averaging more than 50% on Chinese imports, while China, the world's second-largest oil crude oil importer, has responded with retaliatory tariffs averaging just over 30% on U.S. imported goods. After Trump signaled openness to a trade deal with China, oil prices clawed back about a quarter of Friday's losses.
In their latest monthly oil market report published this morning, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries again left their demand growth forecast for 2026 unchanged, and even raised the demand growth estimate for 2025 by 100,000 bpd to 1.3 million bpd. This puts OPEC at odds with forecasting agencies like the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency, who have throughout the year grown increasingly pessimistic about oil demand growth.
The report, however, revealed another significant production push last month, showing combined output from the 22-member strong Declaration of Cooperation, colloquially referred to as OPEC+, growing 630,000 bpd in September. Despite import embargos, sanctions and the G7 oil price cap, Russian production rose 148,000 bpd to 9.321 million bpd last month, but remained behind the targeted quota of 9.425 million bpd.
IEA, meanwhile, sees global production growth from OPEC and non-OPEC members alike significantly outpace demand growth heading into 2026. The agency's monthly report is scheduled for release Tuesday, Oct. 14, morning.
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