European Rapeseed Stabilizes
February rapeseed reached its highest trade in 13 weeks at EUR 675/metric ton on Nov. 2, while has recently turned sideways after trending to a low of EUR 598.50/mt on Nov. 17.
Price has shown signs of stabilizing in recent trade, with prices bouncing from lows below EUR 600/mt in each of the past two sessions only to close above EUR 600/mt. After breaching the support of the 50% retracement of the move from the September low to November high on Nov. 15, price breached the support of the 61.8% retracement only two days later on Nov. 17.
Despite the move below support, which could easily trigger increased noncommercial selling, prices have respected the psychological support at EUR 600/mt for a sideways move. While not shown, the stochastic momentum indicators on the daily chart are deeply over-sold, which may limit speculative selling.
The lower study shows the Feb/May contract spread. This spread reached a high of a EUR 5.75/mt inverse on Nov. 1, the largest inverse seen in over five months. The Nov. 22 close of minus EUR 0.75/mt, a modest carry, is close to the weakest carry seen in more than a month.
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