Canada Markets

AAFC Revised Canada's Wheat Export Forecast

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue line represents the monthly trend in AAFC's forecast for Canada's all-wheat exports, which was revised higher this month to 23.5 mmt, while remains well-below the USDA's latest forecast of 26 mmt. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

One of the few changes made in the November Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops report was a 200,000 metric ton increase in the forecast for Canada's all-wheat exports to 23.5 million metric tons. This consists of 18.5 mmt of wheat exports, where the upward revision was made, along with 5 mmt of durum exports, which was left unchanged this month.

This marks a third consecutive month where an upward revision was made for the wheat export forecast (excluding durum), although the revisions have been small at 100,000 mt in October and 200,000 mt in September and November.

This all-wheat forecast is represented by the blue line on the attached chart, which compares to the USDA's forecast for Canada's exports at 26 mmt, left unchanged from August through November.

As of week 15, wheat exports (excluding durum) total 5.5334 mmt, up 48.3% from the same period in 2021-22 and 12.9% higher than the five-year average for this period. After eight weeks of favourable shipping (week 9-15), exports through licensed facilities are very close to the steady pace needed to reach the current forecast, while excluding the export of flour and unlicensed exports.

When the seasonality of wheat shipments is considered, we see that on average during the past five years, 27.6% of total exports are achieved as of week 15, a pace that projects forward to 20.049 mmt, well-ahead of the current 18.5 mmt forecast.

Durum exports of 1.0779 mmt are up 8.3% from last year while down 9.3% from the five-year average. Over 15 weeks, exports are roughly 364,400 mt behind the steady pace needed to reach the current export demand forecast of 5 mmt.

When the seasonality of durum exports is considered, we see that on average, licensed exports as of week 15 account for roughly 27% of the crop year's total exports, while this average pace of movement would project forward to crop year exports of 3.992 mmt, or roughly 1 mmt below the current export forecast of 5 mmt.


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