Mid-June US Spring Wheat Condition
According to DTN analysis, the USDA's spring wheat crop condition rating as of June 12 was the third lowest seen for this week since 2000 at 54% good to excellent (G/E). Lower ratings were released at 37% G/E as of June 13, 2021, and 45% as of June 11, 2017. ProphetX data going back to 1986 shows the lowest rating for this week of 11% G/E as of June 12, 1988. As seen on the attached chart, the five-year average for this week is 62% G/E for the six states monitored, ranging from a low of 37% in 2021 to a high of 81% in 2020.
Across the six states monitored, the condition rating is seen higher than the five-year average in four states, ranging from North Dakota at 6.2 points above average as of mid-June to Washington where the current estimate is 19.2 points above average.
Of the two states signaling the greatest challenges this season, Minnesota's mid-June rating is seen at 55% G/E, close to the national average of 54%, although is 27.6 points below average for this week due to the excessive rains through the spring season.
The crop condition for Montana is shown at 15% G/E as of June 12, which is the lowest mid-June rating seen for the state since 1988, when this rating was reported at 14% G/E. Unlike the wet conditions faced in Minnesota, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows 94.5% of Montana was facing some degree of drought as of June 9, including 29.3% of the state that ranges from severe drought to exceptional drought.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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