According to DTN analysis, the USDA's spring wheat crop condition rating as of June 12 was the third lowest seen for this week since 2000 at 54% good to excellent (G/E). Lower ratings were released at 37% G/E as of June 13, 2021, and 45% as of June 11, 2017. ProphetX data going back to 1986 shows the lowest rating for this week of 11% G/E as of June 12, 1988. As seen on the attached chart, the five-year average for this week is 62% G/E for the six states monitored, ranging from a low of 37% in 2021 to a high of 81% in 2020.
Across the six states monitored, the condition rating is seen higher than the five-year average in four states, ranging from North Dakota at 6.2 points above average as of mid-June to Washington where the current estimate is 19.2 points above average.
Of the two states signaling the greatest challenges this season, Minnesota's mid-June rating is seen at 55% G/E, close to the national average of 54%, although is 27.6 points below average for this week due to the excessive rains through the spring season.
The crop condition for Montana is shown at 15% G/E as of June 12, which is the lowest mid-June rating seen for the state since 1988, when this rating was reported at 14% G/E. Unlike the wet conditions faced in Minnesota, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows 94.5% of Montana was facing some degree of drought as of June 9, including 29.3% of the state that ranges from severe drought to exceptional drought.
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