The Oct. 5 release of Canada's merchandise trade data for August coincides with the final corn and soybean Aug. 31 stocks estimates for the 2020-21 crop year.
Soybean exports for August were reported at 120,264 metric tons, up from the previous month while limited by tight supplies. Total exports for 2020-21 are reported at 4.518 million metric tons, slightly below the unofficial Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) estimate of 4.6 mmt.
Ending stocks for 2020-21 are reported at 293,800 mt, or as seen on the attached chart, at just 4% of use. This volume is down for a second year and the lowest stocks reported in seven years, while the lowest stocks/use ratio in eight years. This is also 26.6% below the 400,000 mt stocks estimate used by AAFC, with further implications for 2021-22 supplies.
Farm stocks of soybeans as of Aug. 31 are reported at 18,800 mt, the tightest farm stocks reported in five years.
When AAFC estimates are adjusted for the tighter than expected carry-out, both stocks and stocks/use are expected to fall further in 2021-22 given current estimates. Exports to China are calculated at 526,234 mt or just 11.6% of the total exports, up from 178,022 mt in the 2019-20 crop year.
Corn exports for August were reported at 21,122 mt, the smallest monthly volume exported over the 2020-21 crop year. Exports for the crop year total 1.412 mmt, while imports are reported at 1.6 mmt. Exports for 2020-21 fell only modestly lower that the 1.550 mmt estimate reported by AAFC in September.
Ending stocks for 2020-21, or as of Aug. 31, 2021, are estimated at 2.1689 mmt, down 15% from the previous year while compares to the five-year average of 2.339 mmt. Farm stocks are estimated at 1.485 mmt, down 25.5% from one year ago and 7.4% below the five-year average.
The estimate for ending stocks, or beginning stocks for 2021-22, is 68,900 mt higher than AAFC's current estimate. An estimated increase in production along with an estimated increase in 2021-22 imports to 3 mmt will see crop year supplies to approach a record 20 mmt level, while private crop tours have released yield estimates that are significantly higher than Statistics Canada's official estimates. This bears watching.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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