Wheat prices diverged from row-crop trade Wednesday, while leading the entire wheat complex higher and despite U.S. dollar strength this session. The December contract ended 13 1/2 cents higher to close at $9.39 bushel (bu) while reaching a fresh contract high of $9.43 1/4.
The continuous active chart shows a recent high of $9.45/bu reached on the September contract in August. A breach of this level would result in the highest trade seen on the continuous active chart since December 2012.
The long-term continuous active chart shows price approaching the 33% retracement of the move from the February 2008 high to the October 2009 low, calculated at $9.73 1/4 bu, while a breach of this resistance could lead to an extended move to $10.51 1/2 bu, the 38.2% retracement of the same downtrend, with the 50% retracement seen at $12.29.
The brown line on the first study shows a change in direction for the Dec/March futures spread, which strengthened for the first time in five days to 11 1/4 cents (December trading over the March), a signal of growing front-end bullishness.
As of the latest CFTC data for Sept. 28, noncommercial traders have increased their bullish net-long position for the seventh time in nine weeks, now holding the largest bullish net-long position on record.
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