As of week 38, or the week-ending April 25 or the first 73% of the crop year, grain producers have delivered 51.7826 million metric tons of all major grains into the licensed grain handling system. This volume is up 5.4816 mmt or 11.8% from the same period in 2019-20, while is 18.6% higher than the three-year average of 43.655 mmt.
Significant demand is seen across numerous commodities, while a significant old-crop/new-crop inverse sends the signal to clean out bins in advance of new crop.
Ending stocks for many grains, as of July 31, are forecast to be extremely tight, while the question is, where are we at today?
The attached chart for select crops compares the cumulative deliveries into licensed facilitates during the first 38 weeks of the crop year as a percentage of what is available for shipment, or the July 31 2020 carryout added to the 2020 production, as estimated by Statistics Canada. This percentage calculated for the current crop year (blue bars) is compared to 2019-20 (brown bars) and the five-year average (grey bars).
This study was last conducted with week 27 data, while there has been little change in wheat data (excluding durum) as it relates to 2019-20 and the three-year average. As of week 38, deliveries total 16.533 mmt, up 3.7% from 2019-20 and 9.5% higher than the three-year average. Cumulative deliveries of wheat account for 54% of the calculated available supplies, which is equal to the percentage calculated for 2019-20 and 1 point higher than the three-year average. Past analysis has shown that Canada's licensed shipments tend to be weighted heavier in the later months of the crop year, while recent cash bids for No. 1 CWRS 13.5% as reported by pdqinfo that range as high as almost $9/bushel (bu) will lead to increased interest following spring seeding. Based on current Statistics Canada estimates, this study points to remaining farm stocks as of week 38 at 14.1 mmt.
Producers have delivered 4.8904 mmt of durum as of week 38, up 28.1% from last crop year and 46.3% higher than the three-year average. This represents 72.3% of the available supplies, up from 63.6% from last year and the three-year average of 54.4% of available supplies. This study points to stocks remaining on farm of 1.870 mmt as of week 38.
Of the selected crops, canola deliveries as a percent of available supplies are shown at the highest percentage at 81%. As of week 38, producers have delivered 16.640 mmt of canola, up 12.1% from 2019-20 and 16.8% higher than the three-year average. The 81% of supplies delivered compares to 65% calculated for this week in 2019-20 and the three-year average of 63.6%. This study points to remaining stocks on farm as of week 38 at 3.915 mmt, while for context, we compare this to historical Statistics Canada reports that point to March 31 (almost one month earlier) stocks of 7.4 mmt in 2020, the three-year average of 7.9 mmt and the five-year average of 6.9 mmt. Theoretically, the current level of stocks would allow weekly deliveries of 279,600 metric tons per week during the balance of the crop year, which compares to the 411,800 mt delivered in the most recent week.
As seen on the chart, the percentage of available supplies delivered in the first 38 weeks of this crop year is also higher than 2019-20 and the three-year average for oats, barley, flax and lentils.
On May 7, Statistics Canada will release March 31 grain stocks estimates, which could result in revisions in previously released estimates.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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