Canada Markets

Canada's Monthly Wheat Exports: Big Months May Lie Ahead

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart compares Canada's monthly exports of wheat and durum combined for 2020-21 (grey bars) with 2019-20 (brown bars) and the three-year average (blue bars). During this period, the largest volumes have been shipped in the April-through-July period. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Canadian wheat exports continue at a brisk pace, while recent historical movement would indicate the biggest months may lie ahead this crop year.

Week 38 wheat exports, covering activity through the week ending April 25, was reported by the Canadian Grain Commission at 469,800 metric tons, the largest volume shipped in 11 weeks and the eighth-largest volume shipped this crop year. Durum exports for the week eased to 108,000 mt, down from 248,800 mt shipped the previous week.

Combined, Canada's all-wheat shipments totaled 577,800 mt, down from the previous week and higher than the four-week average of 536,650 mt.

The attached chart shows the monthly trend in Canada's all-wheat exports (wheat plus durum) for 2020-21 (grey bars), 2019-20 (brown bars) and the three-year average (blue bars). Note that data was utilized from Statistics Canada tables for all months expect for March 2021, with Canadian Grain Commission data utilized in advance of Statistics Canada's release of March data.

In 2019-20, the four largest monthly volumes for the crop year were shipped in the April-through-July period, ranging from 2.113 million metric tons to 2.965 mmt, the only monthly volumes exceeding 2 mmt seen during the crop year. The average exports during the final four months of the crop year were 47% higher than the average calculated for the first eight months of the crop year.

The three-year average of all-wheat exports also results in three of the four largest months seen in the final four months of the crop year, ranging from 2.109 mmt to 2.568 mmt. Data during this period continues to support movement weighted to the final months of the crop year.

Price signals would indicate that spring wheat is currently in demand. As of the April 30 close, two of the nine prairie regions reported by show bids for No. 1 CWRS 13.5% higher than the highs reached in July 2017. This was seen in the Peace Region and in northwest Saskatchewan. Bids across the other seven regions of the Prairies averaged $7.27/mt below their respective July 2017 highs.

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