The favorable exports realized in the later weeks of the 2019-20 crop year carried into the first week of 2020-21 and is hopefully a sign of things to come.
Of the 1.0559 million metric tons exported through licensed facilities, 94.5% of the volume was realized in the movement of the five crops shown on the attached chart, or wheat, durum, canola, oats and barley.
Week 1 wheat exports (excluding durum) at 423,900 mt was the largest week 1 movement seen in five years, while 33.8% higher than the five-year average for this week. It is important to note that week 1 and week 2 data were combined in 2018-19, which suggests that the five-year average calculated may be overstated across the five crops shown on the chart.
Week 1 exports of durum at 166,800 mt are the largest for this week in six weeks and is 274% higher than the five-year average. Exports of canola at 296,100 mt are the highest for this week for at least 11 years, while are 82% higher than the five-year average. Exports of oats totaled 39,900 mt at up 53% from average and exports of barley are up 160.6% above average.
Ahead of new crop deliveries, commercial stocks of grain are reported higher than average for all of the crops shown on the chart except for durum. Old-crop durum is either in tight hands or facing a tight stocks situation with AAFC estimates forecasting 2019-20 stocks to fall by 50% from 1.8 mmt to 900,000 mt. Commercial stocks of wheat are 4.4% above average for this week, canola stocks are 34.3% above average, oat stocks are 21.8% above average and barley stocks are 12.5% above average. Commercial stocks of durum are 22.3% below average for this week.
When stocks in store terminal positions are considered, canola shines, with the stocks in terminal positions up 69% from the five-year average. Stocks of barley in licensed terminals are 3.5% above average, while stock of wheat are down 0.2%, stocks of durum are down 28.2% and stocks of oats are down 21.5%.
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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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